Egypt Self-Destructs

What a difference a week makes.

The weekend before last, Mohammed Morsi was preparing to mark a year in office as Egypt's President. Although that landmark had not exactly been arrived at seamlessly, and it was known that a demonstration was planned by his growing ranks of opponents, few could have imagined what came next – or that it would all happen so quickly.

Today, with the deposed leader still (as far as anyone can tell) under house arrest – ousted by an army that was supposed to defend him, and replaced by an unelected official for an ominously unspecified period – a country that two years ago was a beacon of democratisation and progress is once again in turmoil, governed by mob rule, and arguably more polarised than it was at any time under the authoritarian leadership of Hosni Mubarak.

The ramifications for the future of the nation, and the whole of the Middle East, are dire.

In the Arab Spring of 2011, as societies throughout the region fought to have their voices heard, it was Egypt - the heartbeat of the Arab world - that led the way, grabbing the biggest headlines and inspiring the greatest optimism across the globe.

A year later, elections were held, then a constitution was (however controversially) drawn up and approved, and Egypt finally seemed to push on and realise the massive untapped potential that it undoubtedly possesses – and in doing so prove to its neighbours and the West that this great experiment of 21st-century development could be a success.

Now, not only does that process seem wasted, but the appeal of democracy to other Arab societies has been destroyed – the dream shattered – courtesy of the apparent ease and speed with which a vocal minority (albeit relatively large and extremely well-organised)  has been able to ride rough-shod over the democratically expressed wishes of the electorate as a whole.

What message will that send to other peoples in the region?

After all, to put the result of last year's presidential vote in context (a poll which Western monitors were satisfied was free and fair), it's worth pointing out that Mr Morsi won a larger majority than President Obama did when he was re-elected last November.

Talking of whom, what has been Washington's response so far? Suffice to say, Mr Obama is outdoing himself by prevaricating even more than he did when his country's long-time friend and ally was under siege two years ago – and this time, the UK is joining in too.

The reason – although the West was happy to see Egyptians choosing their leaders, they weren’t comfortable with the leaders they chose. We may now never know for sure, but the Muslim Brotherhood might well have been banking on a strategy of gaining legitimacy before attempting to succeed in Egypt where Iran has thus far failed – becoming a stable Islamic state.

No-one, though, would wish to defend the events of the past few days, in which apparently innocent supporters of the banished President have been shot and killed by armed forces, who claim that they were provoked. It’s unlikely we’ll ever get to the truth.

Meanwhile, the army’s PR operation is in full swing, claiming that they will respect peaceful protest, and have no wish to remain in power – only to help build a lasting democratic state by installing a technocratic government before paving the way for fresh elections.

However, those words are falling on deaf ears. Even those who supported Morsi’s removal have withdrawn from this process in disgust at the army’s brutality. With the politics stalling and the economy facing paralysis, the likely outcome is continuing social unrest for many days and weeks to come – and almost certainly more bloodshed.