It’s exactly a fortnight since a seismic shock began reverberating
through the bedrock of British party politics, as a fourth tectonic plate
barged its way in alongside the three that had, for a generation previously,
formed the foundations of Westminster’s power structure.
The United Kingdom Independence Party was by no means a new
presence on the scene, and they had already done (and moreover, said) enough to
unsettle some within the Conservative Party – but never had those forebodings
been borne out at the ballot box, nor had anyone imagined the scale of the
intrusion that these unwelcome guests could achieve in one day.
David Cameron himself had once dismissed the party as “a
bunch of fruitcakes and loonies”.
But led by its irrepressibly charismatic leader, Nigel
Farage, and (helpfully) at a time when the Tories are in a twist over Europe –
ironically UKIP’s main stage until now – the party attracted the same share of
the vote in wards in which they fielded candidates as the Conservatives
themselves did nationwide.
Since that night, the Prime Minister has been torn between
the obvious need to keep faith with the centre-right position that (just) restored
his party to power, and the growing importance of ensuring that its core voters
and members are not drawn in by his new rival’s breakthrough.
One of his party’s highest-profile MPs is even talking about
electoral pacts.
Admittedly, protest votes in local elections are inevitable
at this stage of any government, never mind one that is pursuing such an
unpopular set of policies – but this time it’s different. Rarely does such a
result have an impact much beyond the weekend papers and the credibility of the
victors, but the government is clearly shaken by UKIP’s abrupt emergence.
Unusually for him, Farage wasn’t exaggerating when he talked
about a game- changer. And not surprisingly, the main subject of contention so
far has been Britain’s relationship with Europe.
Having already promised an in-out referendum in the event of
EU rule changes that affect Britain, Cameron is now facing demands for an
unconditional pledge, from Tory backbenchers doubtless unnerved by fresh doubts
about their job prospects, and angered by the absence of a draft referendum
bill in last week’s Queen’s Speech (although one has now been proposed).
The posturing and positioning ahead of the 2015 election has
already well and truly begun.
Whatever goes on in the Westminster village, though, by far the
biggest danger for the political establishment – especially the Conservatives, and
as usual, the one they seem least aware of – is that they could all end up
alienating many more voters than UKIP could ever hope to gain on their own, by
appearing hopelessly out of touch with ordinary people’s priorities.
Meanwhile, the task for UKIP (once the warm glow of victory
wears off) is to demonstrate their credibility by making a meaningful
contribution in local government. Little is currently known about their domestic
policies, but their success gives them a valuable platform from which to launch
an assault on the three main parties where it really hurts – at a general
election.
The party should not underestimate the size of its task – it
took the Lib Dems a generation (not to mention a succession of leaders) to go
from fringe force to serious players. The first step is often the hardest – yet
theirs has been a colossal leap. And in what is, anyway, an era of uncertainty
and instability in British politics, the establishment has every right to be
anxious.
Never mind fruit cake – it’s humble pie on the menu in Downing Street.
