Thursday, 17 March 2011

How Do You Solve A Problem Like Gaddafi?

And so, after seemingly interminable days and weeks of thinking, re-thinking, talking, thinking about talking, talking about thinking and finally actually discussing the hard issue of what to do about Libya, tonight is decision time for the United Nations.

If indeed, such a thing exists.

It is surely no accident that it is just as international media attention is turning away from the dreadful scenes on the streets of Tripoli and neighbouring towns, and towards those with a duty to do something about it, that the UN diplomatic juggernaut has at last been put into gear.

Chief among the defendants facing charges of dithering and cold political calculation is Barack Obama… except he hasn’t showed up at court, or anywhere else for that matter. Instead, his hapless fledgling press secretary, Jay Carney, has been left to mutter such drivel as “our position remains that we are evaluating a number of options” and “we have led and coordinated an international response, and we continue to consult with our international partners”.

Best of all: “We have acted with great haste.” The White House press corps must have had a field day.

Despite this, tonight’s vote means action will soon be taken by the international community, right? Wrong – a positive result is not assured, due to scepticism from those traditional do-nothings, China and Russia.

But if the vote does go through, Libya’s burgeoning civil war will be averted, right? Wrong – all that is at stake is a no-fly zone… even though most of the violence has taken place on the ground. What’s more, a no-fly zone needs to be patrolled, using up massive Western military resources with no guarantee of success.

Yet in spite of the UN’s reluctance on what must surely be no more than a first step, US diplomats in New York have now decided they want to go further, admitting that a no-fly zone would do little to help and instead drafting a resolution threatening “all necessary measures short of an occupation” that brings back eerie memories of the Iraq fiasco – a repeat of which everyone is so desperate to avoid.

No wonder Obama is, in Mr Carney’s words, “considering all the implications and ramifications”. (Does this imply that others, like David Cameron who was quick to voice his opinion of Colonel Gaddafi, haven’t and don’t?)

The casualties that are mounting on a daily basis in Libya are turning into yet another African scar on the conscience of the West and its friends. The long-term effects leaving Gaddafi well alone, strengthened by his counterparts’ indifference, could cut much deeper.

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